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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.