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While world leaders gather in Brazil for the 30th UN Climate Change Conference, it is essential to evaluate our collective progress in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions.

In spite of 30 years of UN climate summits, approximately half of the carbon dioxide accumulated in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution has been released after the year 1990. Coincidentally, 1990 was the publication of the initial scientific evaluation by the IPCC, which confirmed the threat of human-caused global warming. While researchers work on the Seventh Assessment Report, they do so knowing that their work remains eclipsed by political influences. Regardless of sincere attempts, the world is still far from the path to prevent catastrophic climate change.

Record-Breaking CO₂ Levels and Fossil Fuel Dependency

Recent data show that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels reached a new peak of 423.9 ppm in 2024, with the increase rate from the previous year jumping by the largest yearly increase since modern measurements began in the late 1950s. Based on the international carbon monitoring initiative, 90% of total global CO₂ emissions in 2024 came from the combustion of carbon-based energy sources, while the remaining 10% resulted from land-use changes such as forest clearance and forest fires.

Although the rise in carbon emissions from fuels in recent times was propelled by increased use of natural gas and petroleum—accounting for more than 50% of global emissions—coal burning also attained a record high, making up 41%. In spite of Cop28’s global stocktake urging nations to transition away from fossil fuels, global strategies still aim to extract over twice the quantity of hydrocarbons in the year 2030 than aligns with keeping global warming to 1.5C, with continued extraction of natural gas rationalized as a less polluting bridge fuel.

The Mirage of Nature-Based Solutions

Instead of concentrating on economic incentives to speed up the phase-out of carbon fuels, environmental strategies are heavily reliant on feel-good eco-positive approaches that seek to cancel out carbon emissions by afforestation rather than reducing factory discharges. Although conserving, expanding, and rehabilitating ecological absorbers like woodlands and wetlands is inherently good, studies has shown that there is not enough land to achieve the worldwide target of net zero emissions using nature-based solutions alone.

Roughly one billion hectares—an area larger than the United States of America—is needed to fulfill net zero pledges. Over 40% of this area would need to be converted from current applications like agriculture to carbon sequestration projects by 2060 at an unprecedented rate.

Although this ideal restoration could be achieved, forests take time to mature and are susceptible to fires, so they cannot be considered as a fast or permanent carbon storage solution, particularly in a fast-changing climate. While extreme heat and dryness affect larger regions, these sincere attempts could actually be destroyed by fire.

The Diminishing of Planetary Absorbers

Scientific evidence tells us that about 50% of the carbon dioxide released annually stays in the air, while the rest is taken up by seas and land ecosystems. With global heating, these natural carbon sinks are losing efficiency at soaking up CO₂, which means that more carbon accumulates in the air, intensifying climate change. Shifting the mitigation burden onto the land sector simply relieves the oil and gas sector from the urgency to cut pollution in the near future.

The Climate Liability and Future Generations

Reaching carbon neutrality by mid-century requires carbon dioxide removal (CDR), which at present relies almost exclusively on land-based measures to soak up excess carbon from the air. Emitting companies can easily purchase offsets to counterbalance their discharges and proceed with business as usual. Meanwhile, the planetary heat imbalance caused by the burning of fossil fuels continues to further destabilise the Earth’s climate. In effect, we are increasing our climate liability to our global account, leaving our descendants with an unpayable liability.

To curb the scale and length of overshoot the Paris Agreement temperature goals, the planet eventually needs to surpass the neutralising effect of carbon neutrality and begin to drawdown cumulative historical emissions to achieve a carbon-negative state.

The Political Distortion of Carbon Neutrality

According to the latest numbers from the international carbon research group, plant-based carbon removal is presently capturing the equal of about 5% of yearly CO2 from fuels, while technology-based CDR accounts for only about one-millionth of the CO2 emitted from fossil fuels. More generous industry estimates suggest around 0.1% of total global emissions. Without meaning to be controversial, the policy twisting of carbon neutrality is an insidious loophole that distracts from the scientific imperative to eradicate the main source of our overheating planet—carbon-based energy.

The Urgent Need for Definite Steps

Although this research-backed truth should dominate talks at Cop30, history indicates that gradual, cautious steps and political kowtowing will win out. Vague statements of long-term goals will keep on delay the urgent need for definite short-term measures. Until policymakers have the courage to put a price on carbon to bring the era of fossil fuels to a definitive end, we are adding more and more carbon to the atmosphere, worsening the environmental disaster now unfolding all around us.

The dilemma we face is straightforward: take real action to the scientific reality of our crisis or endure the results of this profound moral failure for centuries to come.